The arrival of the sixth-generation Toyota RAV4 marks the end of a planned runout period that slowed sales earlier in 2026, with Toyota now expecting strong supply in the second half of the year to push the model back into the number one sales position nationally.
The temporary dip in sales was driven by the transition between model generations rather than a decline in demand, as production of the previous model wound down ahead of the new release.
“We had anticipated this start to the year with the transition in two of our most popular models, that being Hilux and RAV4,” said John Pappas.
Toyota expects sales momentum to build quickly as supply increases through the remainder of the year.
“Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, as Hilux and RAV4 volumes increase, our monthly results will begin to rise from May onwards,” Pappas said.
Retail demand expected to carry the market
While supply is improving, the absence of a confirmed five-star rating from the ANCAP means many large fleets — particularly government and corporate organisations — are unable to place orders for the new model until certification is completed later in 2026.
That constraint is expected to shift demand toward retail and novated lease buyers in the short term. Toyota has already seen strong early interest from private customers following the first deliveries.
“We only wholesaled the car over the last 10 days and we’ve had over 10,000 orders on the vehicle,” Pappas said. (In April the Toyota delivered 3,729)
Toyota targets return to top-selling position
Toyota is forecasting more than 40,000 RAV4 sales in 2026 despite the early-year slowdown associated with the model changeover.
The company expects improved availability to support a return to market leadership once deliveries reach full capacity.
“With the addition of the plug-in hybrid variant later in the year, RAV4 will firmly have the number one spot in its sights for 2027,” Pappas said.
The model has been Australia’s best-selling SUV for several years and remains one of the most important vehicles in the fleet and retail markets.
Fleet demand likely to follow once certification is confirmed
Until the updated safety certification is completed, many fleet operators are expected to delay orders or consider alternative vehicles within the highly competitive medium SUV segment.
The category includes a wide range of hybrid, petrol and plug-in hybrid options, giving buyers flexibility while waiting for the RAV4’s updated rating.
Toyota has confirmed that it is working with fleet customers to manage delivery timing once the certification process is finalised.
“We’re working with them on when scheduling their orders,” Pappas said.
The company expects supply to remain strong through the second half of 2026 as production ramps up and demand continues to build across both retail and fleet markets.
