As another year ends and fleets start reflecting on what’s changed – and what hasn’t – a new report from the National Transport Commission offers a timely reminder that progress on vehicle emissions is happening, but slowly.
The NTC’s latest research tracks light-vehicle emissions intensity over time, using new-vehicle sales data to show how buying decisions today shape Australia’s emissions profile for decades to come. And while the trend is moving in the right direction, the report makes clear that patience – and persistence – will be required.
The long view: emissions don’t fall overnight
One of the most striking findings is just how long vehicles stay on Australian roads. On average, light vehicles remain in the fleet for close to two decades. That longevity means improvements in emissions from new vehicles take years to meaningfully flow through to the national fleet.
The good news is that new vehicles are getting cleaner. Emissions intensity for vehicles first registered in 2024 fell again, marking one of the strongest back-to-back improvements seen in more than 20 years. Compared with vehicles entering the fleet in the early 2000s, today’s new cars emit dramatically less CO₂ per kilometre.
But because older, higher-emitting vehicles linger for so long, overall fleet emissions decline at a much slower pace than new-vehicle trends alone might suggest.
Electrification is growing – but from a small base
Electric and hybrid vehicles are doing much of the heavy lifting in recent emissions reductions. Battery electric vehicles accounted for around 13 per cent of new registrations in 2024, a rapid increase compared with just a few years ago. Hybrids are also becoming a mainstream choice, helping to cut emissions across passenger cars and SUVs.
Yet context matters. Despite strong growth, electric vehicles still make up only a small fraction of the total light-vehicle fleet. Internal combustion engines – petrol and diesel – continue to dominate Australia’s roads, highlighting why sustained change in new-vehicle sales is so important.
Bigger vehicles remain part of the challenge
The report also reinforces an uncomfortable reality: Australians continue to favour larger, heavier vehicles. Utes and SUVs now account for a significant share of new sales, and while technology improvements have reduced emissions intensity, vehicle size still matters.
Some of the highest-emitting vehicles entering the fleet are large utes and four-wheel drives, which offsets gains made elsewhere. The data shows that efficiency gains are real, but they are often fighting against increasing vehicle mass and footprint.
Location, lifestyle and emissions
Where vehicles are used also influences emissions outcomes. Inner-city areas, with higher uptake of newer and electric vehicles, tend to record lower average emissions intensity. Regional and remote areas, where vehicles are older and more likely to be light commercial models, show higher emissions on average.
This reflects the reality that vehicle choice is closely tied to driving task – a reminder that there is no single solution for every fleet or household.
Why this matters for fleets
For Fleet Managers, the takeaway is clear: turnover matters. New vehicles entering the fleet today will still be operating well into the 2040s. Decisions made now on powertrain, vehicle size and replacement cycles have long-term consequences for emissions, costs and policy compliance.
The NTC’s analysis shows that while Australia is making progress, the pace of change depends heavily on how quickly newer, cleaner vehicles replace older stock. Incremental improvements add up – but only if momentum is maintained.
A steady road ahead
As a holiday read, the report offers cautious optimism. Emissions from new vehicles are falling. Electrification is accelerating. Technology continues to improve. But the data also reminds us that fleet transformation is a marathon, not a sprint.
Australia’s emissions trajectory will be shaped less by headlines and more by consistent, long-term decisions – one vehicle purchase at a time.
