The rapid rise in used electric vehicle (EV) demand has sparked speculation that traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles could be heading for a sharp decline in value. For Fleet Managers responsible for replacement planning and residual value forecasting, that possibility raises understandable concern.
However, the latest data from the remarketing sector tells a more measured story.
ICE vehicles are not collapsing in value or demand. Instead, the market appears to have reached a plateau—holding steady while buyer interest shifts toward alternative powertrains. This distinction is important for fleet strategy, particularly when managing mixed fleets and long-term asset plans.
According to Brendon Green, General Manager Automotive Solutions at Pickles, overall sales volumes remain consistent despite the surge in EV demand.
“We’ve sold very, very similar volumes… same sort of volumes as a good first quarter last year.”
Stable Volumes, Slower Momentum
In a typical year, used vehicle demand builds steadily through the first quarter before peaking around Easter. That seasonal pattern provides a reliable benchmark for Fleet Managers planning disposals and forecasting resale outcomes.
This year, the pattern has shifted slightly.
Brendon said the market has stabilised earlier than expected, creating the impression of slower growth rather than declining demand.
“Normally this time of the year you’re sort of peaking at Easter, and then you start to go through that winter dip. It’s just sort of plateaued a bit early.”
This early plateau reflects changing buyer behaviour rather than reduced activity. Demand remains strong, but growth momentum has eased as attention shifts toward EV options.
For fleets, the message is reassuring: traditional vehicles continue to move through the market at predictable volumes.
Diesel Remains Resilient
Within the ICE category, not all fuel types are performing equally.
Diesel vehicles—particularly those used in commercial and fleet applications—continue to demonstrate strong demand. Their operational capability, towing performance, and suitability for regional work remain critical factors for many organisations.
Brendon said diesel vehicles are holding their value well in the current market.
“Diesel’s still very okay, more so than petrol.”
This resilience reflects the ongoing reliance on diesel power in sectors such as construction, logistics, and field services—areas where EV alternatives are still emerging.
For Fleet Managers operating heavy-duty or high-utilisation vehicles, diesel assets remain a stable component of fleet strategy.
Petrol Vehicles Showing Softer Demand
While diesel remains strong, petrol vehicles are experiencing slightly weaker demand growth.
The difference is subtle but noticeable in remarketing performance. Petrol vehicles are still selling, but buyer enthusiasm is not increasing at the same pace as in previous years.
Brendon said the shift is evident when comparing current prices to historical trends.
“They’re both sitting at about 118 per cent of what they were pre-COVID. It’s just that you would expect them to be up 120 plus per cent this time of the year.”
In other words, prices remain above long-term averages—but the upward trajectory has slowed. This plateau effect suggests that buyers are reassessing vehicle choices rather than abandoning ICE vehicles altogether.
Demand Is Shifting, Not Disappearing
One of the most important insights from the current market is that demand is being redistributed rather than reduced.
The rise in EV interest has not removed buyers from the used vehicle market. Instead, it has broadened the range of options being considered.
Brendon said the continued stability in ICE sales volumes demonstrates this shift clearly.
“It’s not like we’re not selling them. Clearance rates are still okay.”
For Fleet Managers, this distinction is critical. A collapse in demand would signal immediate financial risk. A plateau, by contrast, indicates a transition period—one that allows time for strategic adjustment.
What the Plateau Means for Fleet Planning
Fleet asset management relies on predictable market behaviour. Stable resale values support accurate budgeting, lease pricing, and replacement scheduling.
The current plateau in ICE vehicle demand suggests that fleets can continue to manage traditional assets with confidence while preparing for gradual change.
Key implications include:
- ICE vehicles remain viable assets in the medium term
- Diesel vehicles continue to demonstrate strong demand
- Petrol vehicles are stable but facing increased competition
- Market conditions support planned, rather than reactive, replacement cycles
This environment aligns with the reality of most fleet operations, where technology transitions occur over years rather than months.
A Transition Phase, Not a Turning Point
Market transitions rarely happen overnight. Instead, they unfold through a period of stability, adjustment, and gradual change. The current plateau in ICE vehicle demand appears to represent exactly that kind of transition phase.
Brendon believes the market is balancing new demand for EVs with ongoing reliance on traditional vehicles.
“It hasn’t declined… it’s just levelled off earlier than expected.”
For Fleet Managers, the takeaway is practical rather than dramatic.
ICE vehicles are not disappearing from fleets or the resale market. They are entering a mature phase—one defined by stability rather than growth—while new technologies gradually expand their role.
That stability provides time to plan the next move.
