In the U.S., wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 4.3% in February from January. This was the largest increase for the full month of February since 2009’s 4.4% rise. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 234.5, down 7.0% from a year ago. February’s increase was driven partially by the seasonal adjustment. The non-adjusted price change in February was an increase of 3.7% compared to January, moving the unadjusted average price down 5.6% year over year.
In February, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw increases that were not typical, culminating in a 2.4% increase in the Three-Year-Old Index over the last four weeks. Over the month of February, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 100.1%, meaning market prices were very close to MMR values. The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 64.3% and was above normal for the time of year. For example, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 55.3% in January 2019. The higher conversion rate indicated that the month saw sellers with more pricing power than what is typically seen for this time of year.
All eight major market segments continued to see seasonally adjusted prices that were lower year over year in February. Pickups had the smallest decline at 3.9%, with compact cars, midsize cars, and vans losing less than the overall industry year over year. Luxury cars, SUVs, and sports cars lost 10.1%, 8.6%, and 7.4%, respectively, compared to last February. All eight major segments saw significant price increases compared to January, with gains of between 3.3% and 5.9%.
Used retail vehicle sales declined in February. Leveraging a same-store set of dealerships selected to represent the country from Dealertrack, we initially estimate that used retail sales declined 5% in February from January and that used retail sales were down 9% year over year.
Using estimates of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, an initial analysis indicates February ended near 41 days’ supply, down from 48 days at the end of January and 13 days lower than how February 2022 ended at 54 days. Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, wholesale supply is estimated to have finished February at 24 days, down two days from the end of January and down five days from how February 2022 ended at 29 days.
